Plataforma sobre Adaptación al Cambio Climático en España

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Climate change and tourism: where will the journey lead? Energy and climate change

For the global tourism industry, climate change brings more risks than opportunities. There will be regional and seasonal shifts in tourist flows, resulting in both winners and losers. However, it is undoubted that the tourism industry will continue to be a growth sector, despite the challenge of climate change. In Europe, countries bordering the Mediterranean will particularly suffer from climate change. Higher temperatures and water shortages could put off tourists in the high season. This is particularly true for countries in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, those that could gain include: the Benelux countries, Denmark, Germany, and the Baltic countries. France and Italy will be slightly favoured, due to the diversified structure of their tourism offers. Our conclusions are based on a detailed scoring model. Outside Europe, most countries will suffer from climate change, albeit to differing degrees. Especially for the poorer countries in our investigation, which are putting great hopes on tourism as a driver of development, climate change will principally bring additional burdens. Canada, New Zealand and the USA are the only three further countries outside Europe whose tourist industries will be on the winning side. Negative climatic consequences always have particularly serious effects if climate-sensitive tourism has major economic importance. In Europe this applies to Malta, Cyprus, Spain, Austria and Greece. In the Caribbean, e.g. the Bahamas and Jamaica are disproportionately affected; in Asia, Thailand and Malaysia and in Africa Tunisia and Morocco. The island states in the South Pacific and the Indian Ocean are particularly reliant on tourism. If tourists stay away from them, the economic setbacks are extremely serious.