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Towards an Integrated Framework for Assessing the Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change
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Global climate change threatens
global biodiversity, ecosystem
function, and human wellbeing,
with thousands of publications
demonstrating impacts across a
wide diversity of taxonomic groups,
ecosystems, economics, and social
structure. A review by Hughes [1]
identified many of the ways that
organisms may be affected by and/
or respond to climate change. Since
then, there has been a dramatic
increase in the number of case studies
attesting to ecological impacts [2],
prompting several recent reviews
on the subject (e.g., [3–6]). Several
global meta-analyses confirm the
pervasiveness of the global climate
change “fingerprint” across continents,
ecosystems, processes, and species
[7–9]. Some studies have predicted
increasingly severe future impacts
with potentially high extinction rates
in natural systems around the world
[10,11]. Responding to this threat will
require a concerted, multi-disciplinary,
multi-scale, multi-taxon research effort
that improves our predictive capacity
to identify and prioritise vulnerable
species in order to inform governments
of the seriousness of the threat and to
facilitate conservation adaptation and
management [12,13].
If we are to minimise global
biodiversity loss, we need significant
decreases in global emissions to
be combined with environmental
management that is guided by sensible
prioritisation of relative vulnerability.
That is, we need to determine which
species, habitats, and ecosystems will be
most vulnerable, exactly what aspects
of their ecological and evolutionary
biology determine their vulnerability,
and what we can do about managing
this vulnerability and minimising the
realised impacts. There is an emerging
literature on specific traits that
promote vulnerability under climate
change (e.g., thermal tolerance [14])
as well as a broad literature on the traits
that influence species’ vulnerability
generally (e.g., review by [15]). Less is
known about the various mechanisms
for either ecological or evolutionary
adaptation to climate change, although
it is increasingly recognised as a vital
component of assessing vulnerability
[16,17].
Despite this emerging pool of
knowledge, we believe that progress
in vulnerability assessment relating to
climate change could be hastened if
a unified framework was available to
coordinate the activities of disparate
research disciplines. Specifically,
what is needed is a complete
working framework for assessing the
vulnerability of species that explicitly
links: the various components of
biotic vulnerability; the regional and
local factors determining exposure to
climatic change; the potential for both
evolutionary and ecological responses,
resilience, and active management to
mediate the final realised impacts; and
the potential for feedback effects. Such
a framework would be invaluable as it
would integrate and guide thought,
research programmes, and policy
in the biodiversity/climate change
arena and allow significant gaps in
knowledge to be clearly identified.
To this end, we present a conceptual
framework that addresses these
challenges (Figure 1).
Vulnerability is the susceptibility
of a system to a negative impact [18].
A practical first step in assessing
vulnerability is to differentiate between
factors that determine exposure and
factors that govern sensitivity [19,20].
In this context, sensitivity is considered
to be governed by traits that are
intrinsic to a species and by exposure to
factors that are extrinsic to the species
and determined by regional climate
change and local habitat effects.