Since the Industrial Revolution, the average global temperature has risen by 1.1ºC. It may seem small, but it is significant. In polar regions, the increase exceeds three degrees. Most importantly, it has happened very quickly. There is no geological record or any evidence showing another rise in temperatures in the planet’s history that happened so rapidly.

If we exceed 1.5ºC—and especially if we exceed 2ºC—the climate will be very different, and it will be very difficult to reverse. That is why the Paris Agreement is so important: an agreement in which the countries of the world pledged in 2015 to conduct a comprehensive inventory of their emissions and implement mechanisms to reduce them in the coming years.

To understand what is happening to the climate, an independent body coordinated by the United Nations was created three decades ago—the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC brings together thousands of scientists from all over the world, including the very best.

The IPCC combines two key aspects of scientific data: evidence and consensus. Evidence considers the number of studies on the subject and their quality, while consensus reflects whether the various studies reach the same conclusions. Using these two elements, the IPCC quantifies the uncertainty of its findings. The IPCC always speaks in terms of probability, not absolute certainty.

However, not everything is science. The most important variable, the one that largely determines future climate scenarios, is the emission of greenhouse gases. This is not decided by scientists, but by all of us.

We have seen how climate science communicates. Now we must see how humanity discusses the main ingredient of climate change: emissions.

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