Plataforma sobre Adaptación al Cambio Climático en España

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Downscaling future climate change: Temperature scenarios for the Mediterranean area

For the assessment of Mediterranean temperature under anthropogenically forced climate conditions canonical correlation models are established for the 1948–98 period between highly resolved Mediterranean temperatures and large-scale North-Atlantic–European 1000 hPa-/500 hPa-geopotential height fields. Predictor output from two different global general circulation model runs (ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3), both forced with B2 scenario assumptions according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), is used to assess Mediterranean temperature changes in the 21st century. The results show a temperature increase for the whole Mediterranean area for all months of the year in the period 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The assessed temperature rise varies depending on region and season, but overall substantial temperature changes of partly more than 4 °C by the end of this century have to be anticipated under enhanced greenhouse warming conditions.